Top 20 Global Chips

According to the World Semiconductor Technology Society (WSTS), the global semiconductor market size is expected to reach $792 billion by 2025. The growth rate in 2025 is 25.6% higher than that in 2024, which is the strongest growth since 2021 (affected by COVID-19, the growth rate in 2021 is 26.2%). The booming development of artificial intelligence (AI) is the main driving force behind growth, with Nvidia's revenue growth reaching as high as 65%. Major memory manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron Technology, Kaixia, and SanDisk have all stated that artificial intelligence is the main driver of their revenue growth, driving their overall 29% revenue growth.

The performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 is mixed. Memory company revenue increased by 21% to 34% compared to the third quarter of 2025. NVIDIA's revenue increased by 20%. Ten companies will experience a revenue growth of 0.2% to 11% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Four companies (Texas Instruments, Infineon, Sony Pictures, and Anson) experienced a decline in revenue.

The expected changes in revenue for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 vary among memory manufacturers. Three memory manufacturers that have provided performance guidance expect significant revenue growth in the first quarter of 2026, with Micron expected to grow by 37%, SanDisk expected to grow by 52%, and Kaixia expected to grow by 64%. Nvidia expects artificial intelligence to drive revenue growth of 14%. Four other manufacturers expect their revenue to increase by 2% to 11% based on the recovery of the industrial market and the continued strong development momentum of artificial intelligence. AMD、 NXP Semiconductors, STMicroelectronics, and ON Semiconductor expect a decline in revenue, mainly due to seasonal factors.

The huge memory demand in the field of artificial intelligence has led to memory shortages in other application areas. Intel expects its revenue in the first quarter of 2026 to decrease by 11% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 due to a shortage of personal computer memory. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek have pointed out that the shortage of smartphone memory is the reason for their expected decline in revenue.

Last December, IDC pointed out that memory shortages could lead to a decline in smartphone and PC shipments by 2026.

Therefore, if artificial intelligence continues to maintain strong growth in 2026, semiconductor companies that rely on the smartphone and personal computer markets may face a decline in revenue in 2026. A year ago, no one expected that the demand for artificial intelligence would drive a 25.6% growth in the semiconductor market by 2025. Semiconductor Intelligence has established a virtual award to recognize the most accurate semiconductor market forecast of the year. The selection criteria are the forecast data publicly released during the WSTS January data release period from October of the previous year to early March of this year. In the end, IDC won the Best Forecast Award for 2025 with a growth rate of 15%. The predicted values of other forecasting agencies are between 12% and 14%.

Looking ahead to 2026, recent forecasts are divided into two groups. In the lower prediction group, the Cowan LRA model (based on historical income trends) predicts 9.5%, while Future Horizons predicts 12%. In the higher prediction group, RCD Advisors predicts 23%, WSTS predicts 26.3%, and Semiconductor Intelligence predicts 30%.